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Those successes — or so they believed — were both theoretical and practical, leading to a golden era for the profession. On the theoretical side, they thought that they had resolved their internal disputes.

In , Ben Bernanke, a former Princeton professor who is now the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, celebrated the Great Moderation in economic performance over the previous two decades, which he attributed in part to improved economic policy making.

Last year, everything came apart. During the golden years, financial economists came to believe that markets were inherently stable — indeed, that stocks and other assets were always priced just right.

There was nothing in the prevailing models suggesting the possibility of the kind of collapse that happened last year. Meanwhile, macroeconomists were divided in their views. But the main division was between those who insisted that free-market economies never go astray and those who believed that economies may stray now and then but that any major deviations from the path of prosperity could and would be corrected by the all-powerful Fed.

And in the wake of the crisis, the fault lines in the economics profession have yawned wider than ever. What happened to the economics profession? And where does it go from here? As I see it, the economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.

Until the Great Depression , most economists clung to a vision of capitalism as a perfect or nearly perfect system. The renewed romance with the idealized market was, to be sure, partly a response to shifting political winds, partly a response to financial incentives. Unfortunately, this romanticized and sanitized vision of the economy led most economists to ignore all the things that can go wrong.

In practical terms, this will translate into more cautious policy advice — and a reduced willingness to dismantle economic safeguards in the faith that markets will solve all problems. Over the next years an extensive body of economic theory was developed, whose central message was: This faith was, however, shattered by the Great Depression.

Actually, even in the face of total collapse some economists insisted that whatever happens in a market economy must be right: Keynes did not, despite what you may have heard, want the government to run the economy. But he did challenge the notion that free-market economies can function without a minder, expressing particular contempt for financial markets, which he viewed as being dominated by short-term speculation with little regard for fundamentals.

And he called for active government intervention — printing more money and, if necessary, spending heavily on public works — to fight unemployment during slumps.

Yet the story of economics over the past half century is, to a large degree, the story of a retreat from Keynesianism and a return to neoclassicism. Famously, Friedman and his collaborator, Anna Schwartz, argued that if the Federal Reserve had done its job properly, the Great Depression would not have happened.

And even those not willing to go that far argued that any attempt to fight an economic slump would do more harm than good. Not all macroeconomists were willing to go down this road: Yet even they mostly accepted the notion that investors and consumers are rational and that markets generally get it right.

Of course, there were exceptions to these trends: But they were swimming against the tide, unable to make much headway against a pervasive and, in retrospect, foolish complacency. Pangloss, who insisted that we live in the best of all possible worlds. Discussion of investor irrationality, of bubbles, of destructive speculation had virtually disappeared from academic discourse.

And by the s, finance economists, notably Michael Jensen of the Harvard Business School, were arguing that because financial markets always get prices right, the best thing corporate chieftains can do, not just for themselves but for the sake of the economy, is to maximize their stock prices. True, the memory of was gradually receding, but there continued to be bull markets, with widespread tales of speculative excess, followed by bear markets.

In , for example, stocks lost 48 percent of their value. And the stock crash, in which the Dow plunged nearly 23 percent in a day for no clear reason, should have raised at least a few doubts about market rationality. These events, however, which Keynes would have considered evidence of the unreliability of markets, did little to blunt the force of a beautiful idea. The theoretical model that finance economists developed by assuming that every investor rationally balances risk against reward — the so-called Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM pronounced cap-em — is wonderfully elegant.

Armed with their new models and formidable math skills — the more arcane uses of CAPM require physicist-level computations — mild-mannered business-school professors could and did become Wall Street rocket scientists, earning Wall Street paychecks. They also produced a great deal of statistical evidence, which at first seemed strongly supportive.

But this evidence was of an oddly limited form. Finance economists rarely asked the seemingly obvious though not easily answered question of whether asset prices made sense given real-world fundamentals like earnings. Instead, they asked only whether asset prices made sense given other asset prices. But neither this mockery nor more polite critiques from economists like Robert Shiller of Yale had much effect.

Finance theorists continued to believe that their models were essentially right, and so did many people making real-world decisions. Not least among these was Alan Greenspan, who was then the Fed chairman and a long-time supporter of financial deregulation whose rejection of calls to rein in subprime lending or address the ever-inflating housing bubble rested in large part on the belief that modern financial economics had everything under control.

One brave attendee, Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago, surprisingly , presented a paper warning that the financial system was taking on potentially dangerous levels of risk. What should policy makers do? Unfortunately, macroeconomics, which should have been providing clear guidance about how to address the slumping economy, was in its own state of disarray.

The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time — perhaps for a long time. I like to explain the essence of Keynesian economics with a true story that also serves as a parable, a small-scale version of the messes that can afflict entire economies. To ensure that every couple did its fair share of baby-sitting, the co-op introduced a form of scrip: Initially, members received 20 coupons on joining and were required to return the same amount on departing the group.

As a result, relatively few people wanted to spend their scrip and go out, while many wanted to baby-sit so they could add to their hoard.

But since baby-sitting opportunities arise only when someone goes out for the night, this meant that baby-sitting jobs were hard to find, which made members of the co-op even more reluctant to go out, making baby-sitting jobs even scarcer. In short, the co-op fell into a recession. Forty years ago most economists would have agreed with this interpretation. But since then macroeconomics has divided into two great factions: Freshwater economists are, essentially, neoclassical purists.

They believe that all worthwhile economic analysis starts from the premise that people are rational and markets work, a premise violated by the story of the baby-sitting co-op. And that would solve the problem: Appearances can be deceiving, say the freshwater theorists.

Yet recessions do happen. In the s the leading freshwater macroeconomist, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas, argued that recessions were caused by temporary confusion: And Lucas warned that any attempt to fight the business cycle would be counterproductive: By the s, however, even this severely limited acceptance of the idea that recessions are bad things had been rejected by many freshwater economists. Instead, the new leaders of the movement, especially Edward Prescott, who was then at the University of Minnesota you can see where the freshwater moniker comes from , argued that price fluctuations and changes in demand actually had nothing to do with the business cycle.

Unemployment is a deliberate decision by workers to take time off. Put baldly like that, this theory sounds foolish — was the Great Depression really the Great Vacation? And to be honest, I think it really is silly. Meanwhile, saltwater economists balked. Where the freshwater economists were purists, saltwater economists were pragmatists.

While economists like N. So they were willing to deviate from the assumption of perfect markets or perfect rationality, or both, adding enough imperfections to accommodate a more or less Keynesian view of recessions. And in the saltwater view, active policy to fight recessions remained desirable. They tried to keep their deviations from neoclassical orthodoxy as limited as possible. This meant that there was no room in the prevailing models for such things as bubbles and banking-system collapse.

Even so, you might have thought that the differing worldviews of freshwater and saltwater economists would have put them constantly at loggerheads over economic policy. Somewhat surprisingly, however, between around and the disputes between freshwater and saltwater economists were mainly about theory, not action.

They believed that monetary policy, administered by the technocrats at the Fed, could provide whatever remedies the economy needed. And as long as macroeconomic policy was left in the hands of the maestro Greenspan, without Keynesian-type stimulus programs, freshwater economists found little to complain about. View all New York Times newsletters. It would take a crisis to reveal both how little common ground there was and how Panglossian even New Keynesian economics had become.

Take, for example, the precipitous rise and fall of housing prices. Coetzee spent most of his early life in Cape Town and in Worcester in Cape Province modern-day Western Cape , as recounted in his fictionalised memoir, Boyhood The family moved to Worcester when he was eight, after his father had lost his government job.

Coetzee went to the University of Texas at Austin, in the United States, on the Fulbright Program in , receiving his doctorate in An Essay in Stylistic Analysis" From as early as he sought permanent residence in the United States, a process that was finally unsuccessful, in part due to his involvement in protests against the war in Vietnam.

In March , he had been one of 45 faculty members who occupied the university's Hayes Hall and were subsequently arrested for criminal trespass. He then returned to South Africa to teach English literature at the University of Cape Town, where he was promoted Professor of General Literature in and was Distinguished Professor of Literature between and Upon retiring in and relocating to Adelaide, Australia, he was made an honorary research fellow at the English Department of the University of Adelaide , [16] where his partner, Dorothy Driver, [14] is a fellow academic [17] and served as professor on the Committee on Social Thought at the University of Chicago until Coetzee has been the recipient of numerous awards throughout his career, although he has a reputation for avoiding award ceremonies.

He was the first writer to be awarded the Booker Prize twice: Summertime , named on the longlist, [22] was an early favourite to win an unprecedented third Booker Prize for Coetzee. On 2 October , Horace Engdahl , head of the Swedish Academy , announced that Coetzee had been chosen as that year's recipient of the Nobel Prize in Literature, making him the fourth African writer to be so honoured [27] and the second South African after Nadine Gordimer.

Coetzee was awarded the Order of Mapungubwe gold class by the South African government on 27 September for his "exceptional contribution in the field of literature and for putting South Africa on the world stage. In November , Coetzee was honoured with a three-day academic conference entitled "JM Coetzee in the World", held in his adopted city of Adelaide.

It was described as "the culmination of an enormous collaborative effort and the first event of its kind in Australia" and "a reflection of the deep esteem in which John Coetzee is held by Australian academia". Coetzee is known to be reclusive and avoids publicity to such an extent that he did not collect either of his two Booker Prizes in person.

Coetzee is a man of almost monkish self-discipline and dedication. He does not drink, smoke, or eat meat. He cycles vast distances to keep fit and spends at least an hour at his writing-desk each morning, seven days a week. A colleague who has worked with him for more than a decade claims to have seen him laugh just once. An acquaintance has attended several dinner parties where Coetzee has uttered not a single word.

Asked about this comment in an interview by email, Coetzee said, "I have met Rian Malan only once in my life. He does not know me and is not qualified to talk about my character.

As a result of his reclusive nature, signed copies of Coetzee's fiction are highly sought after. He married Philippa Jubber in [52] and divorced in On 6 March , Coetzee became an Australian citizen, [16] and it has been argued that his "acquired 'Australianness' is deliberately adopted and stressed".

Coetzee's younger brother, the journalist David Coetzee, died in His partner, Dorothy Driver, is an academic at the University of Adelaide. Coetzee is an atheist. He went on to say that "South African literature is a literature in bondage.

It is a less than fully human literature. It is exactly the kind of literature you would expect people to write from prison".

He called on the South African government to abandon its apartheid policy. Only the future will tell what the TRC managed to achieve". Following his Australian citizenship ceremony, Coetzee said that "I did not so much leave South Africa, a country with which I retain strong emotional ties, but come to Australia. Coetzee has never specified any political orientation, though has alluded to politics in his work. Writing about his past in the third person , Coetzee states in Doubling the Point that:.

Politically, the raznochinets can go either way. But during his student years he, this person, this subject, my subject, steers clear of the right. As a child in Worcester he has seen enough of the Afrikaner right, enough of its rant, to last him a lifetime. In fact, even before Worcester he has perhaps seen more of cruelty and violence than should have been allowed to a child.

So as a student he moves on the fringes of the left without being part of the left. Asked about the latter part of this quote in an interview, Coetzee answered, "There is no longer a left worth speaking of, and a language of the left. The language of politics, with its new economistic bent, is even more repellent than it was fifteen years ago". In February , Coetzee was one of 61 signatories to a letter to Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and immigration minister Peter Dutton , condemning their government's policy of offshore detention of asylum seekers.

In , Coetzee criticised contemporary anti-terrorism laws as resembling those employed by the apartheid regime in South Africa: Now I know they were just pioneers ahead of their time". In recent years, Coetzee has become a vocal critic of animal cruelty and advocate for the animal rights movement. The speech was for Voiceless, the animal protection institute , an Australian non-profit animal protection organization, of which he became a patron in He is a vegetarian.

Coetzee wanted to be a candidate in the European Parliament election for the Dutch Party for the Animals. His candidature was however rejected by the Dutch election board, which argued that candidates had to prove legal residence in the European Union to be allowed. Coetzee's published work consists of fiction, fictionalised autobiographies in the mode of what he terms "autrebiography" , [73] [74] criticism, translations, poetry, screenplays, and letters.

In addition, Coetzee has published critical works and translations from Dutch and Afrikaans. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Coetzee in Warsaw JM Coetzee and other Booker authors". Retrieved 26 November Many South Africans, whether Afrikaans speakers or not, pronounce this as a diphthong EE-uh, as in the word "idea".

However, that vowel can also be pronounced as a monophthong kuut-SEE , especially by those from the south of the country, and this is the pronunciation that the author uses and prefers the BBC to use too.

Retrieved 12 January The New York Times. JM Coetzee humiliates himself in Johannesburg. Retrieved 3 January Coetzee and the Ethics of Reading: Literature in the Event. University of Chicago Press. Retrieved 9 October The Cambridge Introduction to J. Retrieved 2 August Journal of Literary Studies. University of Chicago Chronicle. Who's Who of Southern Africa.

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In March , he had been one of 45 faculty members who occupied the university's Hayes Hall and were subsequently arrested for criminal trespass. He then returned to South Africa to teach English literature at the University of Cape Town, where he was promoted Professor of General Literature in and was Distinguished Professor of Literature between and Upon retiring in and relocating to Adelaide, Australia, he was made an honorary research fellow at the English Department of the University of Adelaide , [16] where his partner, Dorothy Driver, [14] is a fellow academic [17] and served as professor on the Committee on Social Thought at the University of Chicago until Coetzee has been the recipient of numerous awards throughout his career, although he has a reputation for avoiding award ceremonies.

He was the first writer to be awarded the Booker Prize twice: Summertime , named on the longlist, [22] was an early favourite to win an unprecedented third Booker Prize for Coetzee. On 2 October , Horace Engdahl , head of the Swedish Academy , announced that Coetzee had been chosen as that year's recipient of the Nobel Prize in Literature, making him the fourth African writer to be so honoured [27] and the second South African after Nadine Gordimer.

Coetzee was awarded the Order of Mapungubwe gold class by the South African government on 27 September for his "exceptional contribution in the field of literature and for putting South Africa on the world stage.

In November , Coetzee was honoured with a three-day academic conference entitled "JM Coetzee in the World", held in his adopted city of Adelaide. It was described as "the culmination of an enormous collaborative effort and the first event of its kind in Australia" and "a reflection of the deep esteem in which John Coetzee is held by Australian academia".

Coetzee is known to be reclusive and avoids publicity to such an extent that he did not collect either of his two Booker Prizes in person. Coetzee is a man of almost monkish self-discipline and dedication.

He does not drink, smoke, or eat meat. He cycles vast distances to keep fit and spends at least an hour at his writing-desk each morning, seven days a week. A colleague who has worked with him for more than a decade claims to have seen him laugh just once. An acquaintance has attended several dinner parties where Coetzee has uttered not a single word.

Asked about this comment in an interview by email, Coetzee said, "I have met Rian Malan only once in my life. He does not know me and is not qualified to talk about my character.

As a result of his reclusive nature, signed copies of Coetzee's fiction are highly sought after. He married Philippa Jubber in [52] and divorced in On 6 March , Coetzee became an Australian citizen, [16] and it has been argued that his "acquired 'Australianness' is deliberately adopted and stressed".

Coetzee's younger brother, the journalist David Coetzee, died in His partner, Dorothy Driver, is an academic at the University of Adelaide. Coetzee is an atheist.

He went on to say that "South African literature is a literature in bondage. It is a less than fully human literature. It is exactly the kind of literature you would expect people to write from prison". He called on the South African government to abandon its apartheid policy. Only the future will tell what the TRC managed to achieve". Following his Australian citizenship ceremony, Coetzee said that "I did not so much leave South Africa, a country with which I retain strong emotional ties, but come to Australia.

Coetzee has never specified any political orientation, though has alluded to politics in his work. Writing about his past in the third person , Coetzee states in Doubling the Point that:.

Politically, the raznochinets can go either way. But during his student years he, this person, this subject, my subject, steers clear of the right. As a child in Worcester he has seen enough of the Afrikaner right, enough of its rant, to last him a lifetime. In fact, even before Worcester he has perhaps seen more of cruelty and violence than should have been allowed to a child.

So as a student he moves on the fringes of the left without being part of the left. Asked about the latter part of this quote in an interview, Coetzee answered, "There is no longer a left worth speaking of, and a language of the left. The language of politics, with its new economistic bent, is even more repellent than it was fifteen years ago".

In February , Coetzee was one of 61 signatories to a letter to Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and immigration minister Peter Dutton , condemning their government's policy of offshore detention of asylum seekers.

In , Coetzee criticised contemporary anti-terrorism laws as resembling those employed by the apartheid regime in South Africa: Now I know they were just pioneers ahead of their time". In recent years, Coetzee has become a vocal critic of animal cruelty and advocate for the animal rights movement. The speech was for Voiceless, the animal protection institute , an Australian non-profit animal protection organization, of which he became a patron in He is a vegetarian.

Coetzee wanted to be a candidate in the European Parliament election for the Dutch Party for the Animals. His candidature was however rejected by the Dutch election board, which argued that candidates had to prove legal residence in the European Union to be allowed. Coetzee's published work consists of fiction, fictionalised autobiographies in the mode of what he terms "autrebiography" , [73] [74] criticism, translations, poetry, screenplays, and letters.

In addition, Coetzee has published critical works and translations from Dutch and Afrikaans. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Coetzee in Warsaw JM Coetzee and other Booker authors". Retrieved 26 November Many South Africans, whether Afrikaans speakers or not, pronounce this as a diphthong EE-uh, as in the word "idea".

However, that vowel can also be pronounced as a monophthong kuut-SEE , especially by those from the south of the country, and this is the pronunciation that the author uses and prefers the BBC to use too. Retrieved 12 January The New York Times. JM Coetzee humiliates himself in Johannesburg.

Retrieved 3 January Coetzee and the Ethics of Reading: Literature in the Event. University of Chicago Press. Retrieved 9 October The Cambridge Introduction to J. Retrieved 2 August Journal of Literary Studies. University of Chicago Chronicle. Who's Who of Southern Africa. Retrieved 31 August A Gallery of Nobel Prize Winners.

Archived from the original on 12 January Retrieved 1 August Retrieved 4 October And he called for active government intervention — printing more money and, if necessary, spending heavily on public works — to fight unemployment during slumps.

Yet the story of economics over the past half century is, to a large degree, the story of a retreat from Keynesianism and a return to neoclassicism. Famously, Friedman and his collaborator, Anna Schwartz, argued that if the Federal Reserve had done its job properly, the Great Depression would not have happened. And even those not willing to go that far argued that any attempt to fight an economic slump would do more harm than good. Not all macroeconomists were willing to go down this road: Yet even they mostly accepted the notion that investors and consumers are rational and that markets generally get it right.

Of course, there were exceptions to these trends: But they were swimming against the tide, unable to make much headway against a pervasive and, in retrospect, foolish complacency.

Pangloss, who insisted that we live in the best of all possible worlds. Discussion of investor irrationality, of bubbles, of destructive speculation had virtually disappeared from academic discourse. And by the s, finance economists, notably Michael Jensen of the Harvard Business School, were arguing that because financial markets always get prices right, the best thing corporate chieftains can do, not just for themselves but for the sake of the economy, is to maximize their stock prices.

True, the memory of was gradually receding, but there continued to be bull markets, with widespread tales of speculative excess, followed by bear markets.

In , for example, stocks lost 48 percent of their value. And the stock crash, in which the Dow plunged nearly 23 percent in a day for no clear reason, should have raised at least a few doubts about market rationality. These events, however, which Keynes would have considered evidence of the unreliability of markets, did little to blunt the force of a beautiful idea.

The theoretical model that finance economists developed by assuming that every investor rationally balances risk against reward — the so-called Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM pronounced cap-em — is wonderfully elegant. Armed with their new models and formidable math skills — the more arcane uses of CAPM require physicist-level computations — mild-mannered business-school professors could and did become Wall Street rocket scientists, earning Wall Street paychecks.

They also produced a great deal of statistical evidence, which at first seemed strongly supportive. But this evidence was of an oddly limited form. Finance economists rarely asked the seemingly obvious though not easily answered question of whether asset prices made sense given real-world fundamentals like earnings. Instead, they asked only whether asset prices made sense given other asset prices. But neither this mockery nor more polite critiques from economists like Robert Shiller of Yale had much effect.

Finance theorists continued to believe that their models were essentially right, and so did many people making real-world decisions. Not least among these was Alan Greenspan, who was then the Fed chairman and a long-time supporter of financial deregulation whose rejection of calls to rein in subprime lending or address the ever-inflating housing bubble rested in large part on the belief that modern financial economics had everything under control.

One brave attendee, Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago, surprisingly , presented a paper warning that the financial system was taking on potentially dangerous levels of risk. What should policy makers do?

Unfortunately, macroeconomics, which should have been providing clear guidance about how to address the slumping economy, was in its own state of disarray.

The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time — perhaps for a long time. I like to explain the essence of Keynesian economics with a true story that also serves as a parable, a small-scale version of the messes that can afflict entire economies. To ensure that every couple did its fair share of baby-sitting, the co-op introduced a form of scrip: Initially, members received 20 coupons on joining and were required to return the same amount on departing the group.

As a result, relatively few people wanted to spend their scrip and go out, while many wanted to baby-sit so they could add to their hoard. But since baby-sitting opportunities arise only when someone goes out for the night, this meant that baby-sitting jobs were hard to find, which made members of the co-op even more reluctant to go out, making baby-sitting jobs even scarcer.

In short, the co-op fell into a recession. Forty years ago most economists would have agreed with this interpretation. But since then macroeconomics has divided into two great factions: Freshwater economists are, essentially, neoclassical purists. They believe that all worthwhile economic analysis starts from the premise that people are rational and markets work, a premise violated by the story of the baby-sitting co-op.

And that would solve the problem: Appearances can be deceiving, say the freshwater theorists. Yet recessions do happen.

In the s the leading freshwater macroeconomist, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas, argued that recessions were caused by temporary confusion: And Lucas warned that any attempt to fight the business cycle would be counterproductive: By the s, however, even this severely limited acceptance of the idea that recessions are bad things had been rejected by many freshwater economists.

Instead, the new leaders of the movement, especially Edward Prescott, who was then at the University of Minnesota you can see where the freshwater moniker comes from , argued that price fluctuations and changes in demand actually had nothing to do with the business cycle.

Unemployment is a deliberate decision by workers to take time off. Put baldly like that, this theory sounds foolish — was the Great Depression really the Great Vacation? And to be honest, I think it really is silly. Meanwhile, saltwater economists balked.

Where the freshwater economists were purists, saltwater economists were pragmatists. While economists like N.

So they were willing to deviate from the assumption of perfect markets or perfect rationality, or both, adding enough imperfections to accommodate a more or less Keynesian view of recessions. And in the saltwater view, active policy to fight recessions remained desirable. They tried to keep their deviations from neoclassical orthodoxy as limited as possible.

This meant that there was no room in the prevailing models for such things as bubbles and banking-system collapse. Even so, you might have thought that the differing worldviews of freshwater and saltwater economists would have put them constantly at loggerheads over economic policy.

Somewhat surprisingly, however, between around and the disputes between freshwater and saltwater economists were mainly about theory, not action. They believed that monetary policy, administered by the technocrats at the Fed, could provide whatever remedies the economy needed.

And as long as macroeconomic policy was left in the hands of the maestro Greenspan, without Keynesian-type stimulus programs, freshwater economists found little to complain about.

View all New York Times newsletters. It would take a crisis to reveal both how little common ground there was and how Panglossian even New Keynesian economics had become. Take, for example, the precipitous rise and fall of housing prices. Some economists, notably Robert Shiller, did identify the bubble and warn of painful consequences if it were to burst.

Yet key policy makers failed to see the obvious. In , Alan Greenspan dismissed talk of a housing bubble: How did they miss the bubble? To be fair, interest rates were unusually low, possibly explaining part of the price rise.

But there was something else going on: And the finance theorists were even more adamant on this point. The bidding process is very detailed. Indeed, home buyers generally do carefully compare prices — that is, they compare the price of their potential purchase with the prices of other houses.

But this says nothing about whether the overall price of houses is justified. In short, the belief in efficient financial markets blinded many if not most economists to the emergence of the biggest financial bubble in history. And efficient-market theory also played a significant role in inflating that bubble in the first place. Now that the undiagnosed bubble has burst, the true riskiness of supposedly safe assets has been revealed and the financial system has demonstrated its fragility.

More than six million jobs have been lost, and the unemployment rate appears headed for its highest level since So what guidance does modern economics have to offer in our current predicament? And should we trust it? Between and a false peace settled over the field of macroeconomics. But these were the years of the Great Moderation — an extended period during which inflation was subdued and recessions were relatively mild.

Saltwater economists believed that the Federal Reserve had everything under control. But the crisis ended the phony peace. Suddenly the narrow, technocratic policies both sides were willing to accept were no longer sufficient — and the need for a broader policy response brought the old conflicts out into the open, fiercer than ever.

also

So as a student he moves on the fringes of the left without being part of the left. Asked about the latter part of this quote in an interview, Coetzee answered, "There is no longer a left worth speaking of, and a language of the left.

The language of politics, with its new economistic bent, is even more repellent than it was fifteen years ago". In February , Coetzee was one of 61 signatories to a letter to Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and immigration minister Peter Dutton , condemning their government's policy of offshore detention of asylum seekers. In , Coetzee criticised contemporary anti-terrorism laws as resembling those employed by the apartheid regime in South Africa: Now I know they were just pioneers ahead of their time".

In recent years, Coetzee has become a vocal critic of animal cruelty and advocate for the animal rights movement. The speech was for Voiceless, the animal protection institute , an Australian non-profit animal protection organization, of which he became a patron in He is a vegetarian.

Coetzee wanted to be a candidate in the European Parliament election for the Dutch Party for the Animals. His candidature was however rejected by the Dutch election board, which argued that candidates had to prove legal residence in the European Union to be allowed.

Coetzee's published work consists of fiction, fictionalised autobiographies in the mode of what he terms "autrebiography" , [73] [74] criticism, translations, poetry, screenplays, and letters. In addition, Coetzee has published critical works and translations from Dutch and Afrikaans. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Coetzee in Warsaw JM Coetzee and other Booker authors". Retrieved 26 November Many South Africans, whether Afrikaans speakers or not, pronounce this as a diphthong EE-uh, as in the word "idea".

However, that vowel can also be pronounced as a monophthong kuut-SEE , especially by those from the south of the country, and this is the pronunciation that the author uses and prefers the BBC to use too.

Retrieved 12 January The New York Times. JM Coetzee humiliates himself in Johannesburg. Retrieved 3 January Coetzee and the Ethics of Reading: Literature in the Event. University of Chicago Press. Retrieved 9 October The Cambridge Introduction to J. Retrieved 2 August Journal of Literary Studies. University of Chicago Chronicle. Who's Who of Southern Africa. Retrieved 31 August A Gallery of Nobel Prize Winners. Archived from the original on 12 January Retrieved 1 August Retrieved 4 October Retrieved 8 September Retrieved 28 July Student Encyclopedia of African Literature.

Republic of South Africa. Archived from the original on 16 January American University of Paris. Retrieved 17 November Archived from the original on 15 September University of Texas at Austin. Archived from the original on 24 August University of Technology, Sydney.

Retrieved 12 April The answer could be yes". Retrieved 25 May Kannemeyer , J. A Life in Writing , Scribe, p. Archived from the original on 24 February A Story of South Africa: Coetzee's Fiction in Context.

Nechaev and Dostoevsky in J. Coetzee's The Master of St Petersburg ". Coetzee again sheds light on the 'black gloom' of isolation". Scenes from Provincial Life , J. Coatzee writes of himself: Adam Kirsch, "With Fear and Trembling: The essential Prostestantism of J. Coatzee's late fiction", The Nation, vol. The whole review article: Retrieved 21 February Guilt, expiation, and the reconciliation process in post-apartheid South Africa". Journal of Modern Literature. Issues in English Studies in Southern Africa.

Coetzee in Conversation with Jane Poyner". Coetzee and the Idea of the Public Intellectual. Retrieved 4 May I feel therefore I am". Keynes did not, despite what you may have heard, want the government to run the economy. But he did challenge the notion that free-market economies can function without a minder, expressing particular contempt for financial markets, which he viewed as being dominated by short-term speculation with little regard for fundamentals.

And he called for active government intervention — printing more money and, if necessary, spending heavily on public works — to fight unemployment during slumps. Yet the story of economics over the past half century is, to a large degree, the story of a retreat from Keynesianism and a return to neoclassicism. Famously, Friedman and his collaborator, Anna Schwartz, argued that if the Federal Reserve had done its job properly, the Great Depression would not have happened.

And even those not willing to go that far argued that any attempt to fight an economic slump would do more harm than good. Not all macroeconomists were willing to go down this road: Yet even they mostly accepted the notion that investors and consumers are rational and that markets generally get it right. Of course, there were exceptions to these trends: But they were swimming against the tide, unable to make much headway against a pervasive and, in retrospect, foolish complacency.

Pangloss, who insisted that we live in the best of all possible worlds. Discussion of investor irrationality, of bubbles, of destructive speculation had virtually disappeared from academic discourse. And by the s, finance economists, notably Michael Jensen of the Harvard Business School, were arguing that because financial markets always get prices right, the best thing corporate chieftains can do, not just for themselves but for the sake of the economy, is to maximize their stock prices.

True, the memory of was gradually receding, but there continued to be bull markets, with widespread tales of speculative excess, followed by bear markets. In , for example, stocks lost 48 percent of their value.

And the stock crash, in which the Dow plunged nearly 23 percent in a day for no clear reason, should have raised at least a few doubts about market rationality. These events, however, which Keynes would have considered evidence of the unreliability of markets, did little to blunt the force of a beautiful idea. The theoretical model that finance economists developed by assuming that every investor rationally balances risk against reward — the so-called Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM pronounced cap-em — is wonderfully elegant.

Armed with their new models and formidable math skills — the more arcane uses of CAPM require physicist-level computations — mild-mannered business-school professors could and did become Wall Street rocket scientists, earning Wall Street paychecks. They also produced a great deal of statistical evidence, which at first seemed strongly supportive. But this evidence was of an oddly limited form. Finance economists rarely asked the seemingly obvious though not easily answered question of whether asset prices made sense given real-world fundamentals like earnings.

Instead, they asked only whether asset prices made sense given other asset prices. But neither this mockery nor more polite critiques from economists like Robert Shiller of Yale had much effect. Finance theorists continued to believe that their models were essentially right, and so did many people making real-world decisions.

Not least among these was Alan Greenspan, who was then the Fed chairman and a long-time supporter of financial deregulation whose rejection of calls to rein in subprime lending or address the ever-inflating housing bubble rested in large part on the belief that modern financial economics had everything under control.

One brave attendee, Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago, surprisingly , presented a paper warning that the financial system was taking on potentially dangerous levels of risk. What should policy makers do? Unfortunately, macroeconomics, which should have been providing clear guidance about how to address the slumping economy, was in its own state of disarray.

The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time — perhaps for a long time. I like to explain the essence of Keynesian economics with a true story that also serves as a parable, a small-scale version of the messes that can afflict entire economies. To ensure that every couple did its fair share of baby-sitting, the co-op introduced a form of scrip: Initially, members received 20 coupons on joining and were required to return the same amount on departing the group.

As a result, relatively few people wanted to spend their scrip and go out, while many wanted to baby-sit so they could add to their hoard. But since baby-sitting opportunities arise only when someone goes out for the night, this meant that baby-sitting jobs were hard to find, which made members of the co-op even more reluctant to go out, making baby-sitting jobs even scarcer.

In short, the co-op fell into a recession. Forty years ago most economists would have agreed with this interpretation. But since then macroeconomics has divided into two great factions: Freshwater economists are, essentially, neoclassical purists. They believe that all worthwhile economic analysis starts from the premise that people are rational and markets work, a premise violated by the story of the baby-sitting co-op.

And that would solve the problem: Appearances can be deceiving, say the freshwater theorists. Yet recessions do happen. In the s the leading freshwater macroeconomist, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas, argued that recessions were caused by temporary confusion: And Lucas warned that any attempt to fight the business cycle would be counterproductive: By the s, however, even this severely limited acceptance of the idea that recessions are bad things had been rejected by many freshwater economists.

Instead, the new leaders of the movement, especially Edward Prescott, who was then at the University of Minnesota you can see where the freshwater moniker comes from , argued that price fluctuations and changes in demand actually had nothing to do with the business cycle. Unemployment is a deliberate decision by workers to take time off. Put baldly like that, this theory sounds foolish — was the Great Depression really the Great Vacation? And to be honest, I think it really is silly.

Meanwhile, saltwater economists balked. Where the freshwater economists were purists, saltwater economists were pragmatists. While economists like N. So they were willing to deviate from the assumption of perfect markets or perfect rationality, or both, adding enough imperfections to accommodate a more or less Keynesian view of recessions.

And in the saltwater view, active policy to fight recessions remained desirable. They tried to keep their deviations from neoclassical orthodoxy as limited as possible. This meant that there was no room in the prevailing models for such things as bubbles and banking-system collapse. Even so, you might have thought that the differing worldviews of freshwater and saltwater economists would have put them constantly at loggerheads over economic policy.

Somewhat surprisingly, however, between around and the disputes between freshwater and saltwater economists were mainly about theory, not action. They believed that monetary policy, administered by the technocrats at the Fed, could provide whatever remedies the economy needed. And as long as macroeconomic policy was left in the hands of the maestro Greenspan, without Keynesian-type stimulus programs, freshwater economists found little to complain about.

View all New York Times newsletters. It would take a crisis to reveal both how little common ground there was and how Panglossian even New Keynesian economics had become. Take, for example, the precipitous rise and fall of housing prices. Some economists, notably Robert Shiller, did identify the bubble and warn of painful consequences if it were to burst.

Yet key policy makers failed to see the obvious. In , Alan Greenspan dismissed talk of a housing bubble: How did they miss the bubble? To be fair, interest rates were unusually low, possibly explaining part of the price rise. But there was something else going on: And the finance theorists were even more adamant on this point.

The bidding process is very detailed. Indeed, home buyers generally do carefully compare prices — that is, they compare the price of their potential purchase with the prices of other houses. But this says nothing about whether the overall price of houses is justified. In short, the belief in efficient financial markets blinded many if not most economists to the emergence of the biggest financial bubble in history. And efficient-market theory also played a significant role in inflating that bubble in the first place.

Now that the undiagnosed bubble has burst, the true riskiness of supposedly safe assets has been revealed and the financial system has demonstrated its fragility. More than six million jobs have been lost, and the unemployment rate appears headed for its highest level since So what guidance does modern economics have to offer in our current predicament?

And should we trust it? Between and a false peace settled over the field of macroeconomics. But these were the years of the Great Moderation — an extended period during which inflation was subdued and recessions were relatively mild. Saltwater economists believed that the Federal Reserve had everything under control.

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