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While the first skill has been shown through research to exist but only among the best managers , the research evidence for timing skill among managers has been hard to come by.

Mutual fund investors are obviously substituting picking managers or passive indexing for actually having to pick individual stocks. Those investors who base their fund choices on researching the field for the best managers may have a significant advantage. Additionally, it remains true that some mutual fund investors might also possess timing and advantageous category selection skills as well.

The above cited paper suggests that timing skills are particularly important during recessions. Successful fund managers and we would suggest successful fund investors "hold more cash in recessions, their portfolios have lower market betas Editor's note: The percentage of fund's defensive allocation can be viewed using the Portfolio tab on morningstar. The authors find the astute analysis of fundamental economic data, such as industrial production and non-farm employment growth, is one of the reasons that the most successful fund managers are able to outperform.

Here is a riddle: What does a doctor need to have lots of to be successful? What does an investor need to have lots of to be successful? The answer is the same - patience. Just think about it. How many fund investors do well over a short period of time? In order to see your assets grow, it will more often than not seem as though you are not getting anywhere, even over multiple year periods, or at best, moving in very slow motion. The reason why most people are not particularly successful as investors is they don't stick to their investment program for a long enough time to enable the sometimes minuscule gains to start to actually amount to something significant.

I have been observing lately that no matter what my mind wishes will be the day-to-day direction of my investments, not only don't I have any control over this aspect of my commitment to investing, but that any progress that I make is likely to be excruciatingly slow. While I may become highly frustrated that this is the case, in most instances, it will later be proven wrong to have given up on the quest merely because of these at times slow, and highly unpredictable, short-term results.

The exception, of course, is particular fund choices which were not good investments to begin with. While there may be times, such as back in the late s when nearly every stock fund investment seemed to support one's sense of perpetual winningness, 's market is much more typical.

The market might give you a little only to take it away in short order. But while success as an investor may mostly seem like a near impossible task for those who expect to see measurable results within a year, two, or even more, there is little doubt that there will nearly always be some winning categories of investments regardless of the broader investment environment. But one must be open to this possibility and at least moderately vigilant enough to seek out these opportunities. This is why we endorse getting away from an "all or none" or mere buy and hold approach to investing.

Most investing trends are clearly visible; investors should emphasize funds and categories that are doing well, while at the same time, keeping an eye out for overvaluation. We began with a Jan. Newsletter entitled "We Remain Firmly Bullish". Therefore, we must fess up; things did not turn out at all as well as we had expected. Especially in and a little less so in , stock fund investors had many opportunities to do quite well.

Not so in If you re-examine our above "bullish" newsletter , you will see that we said that our bullishness referred to "prospects over the next several years, and especially over the next 5 to 10 years. More specifically, we stated one year ago that: We believe we are in such an environment now. What concerns us the most is that at least for the time being, the bullish trend in stock prices stemming back to March appears to have been broken.

That is, as stated above, over the last year almost all categories of stock fund returns are in negative territory. US small and mid-cap funds should also still be considered in a bear market, although having recovered back about half of the lost ground since Oct. This suggests, to us, that until returns turn positive over the prior 12 mos. According to our research-based model for forecasting long-term category performance, nearly all stock fund categories should be regarded as HOLDs, but there are no outright SELLs.

New Model Portfolios for Jan. These categories were chosen because they appeared to us to have the best forward-looking potential over the next several years. We also reported the prior performance of these Portfolios by showing the average performance of the stock fund category we recommended from 1, 3, and 5 years ago.

Average performance for the major fund categories are provided on a number of websites shortly after the close of each calendar quarter, or even on a daily basis.

Our intention has been to call to investors' attention that certain fund categories appear to be a much more strategic place to invest at a given point in time than other categories. An example might be that it appears better to invest in small cap stocks at the start of a positive economic cycle than toward the end. And, of course, at any time during an economic cycle, certain categories can become highly undervalued while others overvalued.

This makes me wonder about the distribution process. The customer rep says to look at the commission's Web site. The three Weekly Grand games have different numbers and different colored tickets. Tickets that are green and orange and carry the number have no top prizes available. And game number has no top prizes. After doing the research, some suspect that scratch-off is more rip-off than payoff.

His column appears on Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays. See a listing of all scratch tickets and how many prizes remain unclaimed. Feel free to print it and share it with your friends and retailers. Click here pdf See lottery sales by product for all fiscal years, click here. Most likely they are the tickets the TLC or the retailers are trying to unload like the ones with no top prizes.

For FREE , you can obtain from the Texas Lottery Commission a weekly report excel spreedsheet that shows how many prizes are still unclaimed for each game. This 16 page report shows the total prizes in each level, prize value of both the claimed and unclaimed prizes, the ticket number, game name and it shows each and every prize amount for every ticket.

This report is actually done by G-Tech and is received by the Commission every Sunday or Monday morning for me. But the truth is, this information is kept and furnished to the TLC daily. By law the TLC has 10 days to fill open records requests and they will take their full 10 days to respond especially in this case. They don't want you to know this much about it! I receive this report plus two others every week but I do have to make a request for them every week. Texas Lottery Commission P.

Box Austin, Texas Attention: I understand this report gives a complete breakdown of ALL scratch tickets including its price, how many tickets remain unclaimed, have been claimed, the value claimed and unclaimed for all prizes and it shows every ticket currently available by name and game number. You should give your name, address, city, state, and zip and your phone number just in case they need to call you but they shouldn't have to call you unless you erred in providing your address.

See lottery sales by product for all fiscal years, click here. Box Garland, Texas Fax lottoreport lottoreport. It might save you money. It might increase your odds. Or it might make you so mad you never want to buy another ticket. But first a quick word about the lottery. Quick, how many of you would buy a ticket knowing the top two prizes had been claimed? But the commission can't afford to take that bet. It would lose millions in sales.

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But one must be open to this possibility and at least moderately vigilant enough to seek out these opportunities. This is why we endorse getting away from an "all or none" or mere buy and hold approach to investing. Most investing trends are clearly visible; investors should emphasize funds and categories that are doing well, while at the same time, keeping an eye out for overvaluation. We began with a Jan. Newsletter entitled "We Remain Firmly Bullish". Therefore, we must fess up; things did not turn out at all as well as we had expected.

Especially in and a little less so in , stock fund investors had many opportunities to do quite well. Not so in If you re-examine our above "bullish" newsletter , you will see that we said that our bullishness referred to "prospects over the next several years, and especially over the next 5 to 10 years.

More specifically, we stated one year ago that: We believe we are in such an environment now. What concerns us the most is that at least for the time being, the bullish trend in stock prices stemming back to March appears to have been broken. That is, as stated above, over the last year almost all categories of stock fund returns are in negative territory. US small and mid-cap funds should also still be considered in a bear market, although having recovered back about half of the lost ground since Oct.

This suggests, to us, that until returns turn positive over the prior 12 mos. According to our research-based model for forecasting long-term category performance, nearly all stock fund categories should be regarded as HOLDs, but there are no outright SELLs. New Model Portfolios for Jan. These categories were chosen because they appeared to us to have the best forward-looking potential over the next several years.

We also reported the prior performance of these Portfolios by showing the average performance of the stock fund category we recommended from 1, 3, and 5 years ago. Average performance for the major fund categories are provided on a number of websites shortly after the close of each calendar quarter, or even on a daily basis.

Our intention has been to call to investors' attention that certain fund categories appear to be a much more strategic place to invest at a given point in time than other categories. An example might be that it appears better to invest in small cap stocks at the start of a positive economic cycle than toward the end. And, of course, at any time during an economic cycle, certain categories can become highly undervalued while others overvalued.

At such times, we believe it makes more sense to direct new or additional investments to the former than to the latter. So emphasizing fund categories, rather than specific funds, seemed like the best way for us to go. We also reasoned that a not all investors have access to those specific funds we recommend, as for those with tax-deferred accounts that only have a limited number of choices, and b many readers would have already selected their own choice of funds and fund families; therefore, emphasizing our favorite funds would leave these investors with perhaps a difficult choice - stick with their own picks, or throw them aside and switch to our picks.

While the above considerations still make sense, we have decided to now emphasize specific fund selections as opposed to broad fund categories. You will note the difference in the tables below which now are structured to highly suggest that you invest in our recommended funds, not just in any fund within our recommended category. Year after year, we have frequently seen the specific stock funds we recommend subsequently do significantly better than their category averages.

After all, the performance shown by category averages, by definition, are not going to beat the performance of prior well-performing funds which continue to remain the higher echelons of their category average.

Thus, since this has indeed been proven to be the case, we have been doing ourselves and our readers somewhat of a "disservice" to emphasize "average", and later, compare how our Model Stock Portfolio did in terms of these average funds. Readers should find the most benefit from this Newsletter by actually investing in our well-researched, and thus far proven, choice of specific funds.

While fund investors in a given type of account eg. Another factor leading us to switch to a focus on specific funds: It is often hard to classify a given fund into a specific category.

And there may even be a discrepancy between what the fund says is the type of investments it focuses on and what the fund's portfolio is invested in at the current time. There is also something called "style drift" where a fund deliberately invests across category boundaries in order to attempt to maximize returns. So, if a fund that usually invests in the Large Value category now has a portfolio that more resembles a Large Blend fund, what should an investor who follows our category recommendations do?

Given these considerations, going forward, we will now present our Stock Portfolio performance in terms of the specific funds we recommend, not the category averages. This too fits with the theme that to be most successful as a fund investor, one needs not only to recognize in which categories of funds the most opportunity appears to lie, but also, which specific funds within that category are most likely to be among your best choices.

As we think we have shown down through the years, it not enough to be in the right category to do particularly well; you must also have selected one of the better specific funds within that category. In our Dec '11 Newsletter, we showed our "all weather" long-term fund choices.

In general, our new Model Portfolio recommended funds will tend to come from that list.

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This makes me wonder about the distribution process. The customer rep says to look at the commission's Web site. The three Weekly Grand games have different numbers and different colored tickets. Tickets that are green and orange and carry the number have no top prizes available. And game number has no top prizes.

After doing the research, some suspect that scratch-off is more rip-off than payoff. His column appears on Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays. See a listing of all scratch tickets and how many prizes remain unclaimed. Feel free to print it and share it with your friends and retailers. Click here pdf See lottery sales by product for all fiscal years, click here. Most likely they are the tickets the TLC or the retailers are trying to unload like the ones with no top prizes. For FREE , you can obtain from the Texas Lottery Commission a weekly report excel spreedsheet that shows how many prizes are still unclaimed for each game.

This 16 page report shows the total prizes in each level, prize value of both the claimed and unclaimed prizes, the ticket number, game name and it shows each and every prize amount for every ticket. This report is actually done by G-Tech and is received by the Commission every Sunday or Monday morning for me.

But the truth is, this information is kept and furnished to the TLC daily. By law the TLC has 10 days to fill open records requests and they will take their full 10 days to respond especially in this case. They don't want you to know this much about it! I receive this report plus two others every week but I do have to make a request for them every week.

Texas Lottery Commission P. Box Austin, Texas Attention: I understand this report gives a complete breakdown of ALL scratch tickets including its price, how many tickets remain unclaimed, have been claimed, the value claimed and unclaimed for all prizes and it shows every ticket currently available by name and game number.

Over the last 3 yrs. Over longer periods, though, investor returns were generally less than buy-and-hold returns. This seems to contradict prior evidence that stock investor returns usually run less than buy and hold returns. If interested, see our Nov. Perhaps the explanation for this is that, in general, investors have been pulling money out of stock funds over the last decade and this has finally started to work toward their advantage.

Since returns have generally been mediocre at best, and weak especially in the latter part of this year, pulling out has proven to be slightly superior than holding on. Unfortunately, investor returns in bond funds has continued to trail those investors who bought and held. Thus, if the intention was to decide when was a good time to either enter or exit from these funds, investors have still not been able to be successful.

While the first skill has been shown through research to exist but only among the best managers , the research evidence for timing skill among managers has been hard to come by. Mutual fund investors are obviously substituting picking managers or passive indexing for actually having to pick individual stocks. Those investors who base their fund choices on researching the field for the best managers may have a significant advantage. Additionally, it remains true that some mutual fund investors might also possess timing and advantageous category selection skills as well.

The above cited paper suggests that timing skills are particularly important during recessions. Successful fund managers and we would suggest successful fund investors "hold more cash in recessions, their portfolios have lower market betas Editor's note: The percentage of fund's defensive allocation can be viewed using the Portfolio tab on morningstar. The authors find the astute analysis of fundamental economic data, such as industrial production and non-farm employment growth, is one of the reasons that the most successful fund managers are able to outperform.

Here is a riddle: What does a doctor need to have lots of to be successful? What does an investor need to have lots of to be successful? The answer is the same - patience. Just think about it. How many fund investors do well over a short period of time?

In order to see your assets grow, it will more often than not seem as though you are not getting anywhere, even over multiple year periods, or at best, moving in very slow motion. The reason why most people are not particularly successful as investors is they don't stick to their investment program for a long enough time to enable the sometimes minuscule gains to start to actually amount to something significant.

I have been observing lately that no matter what my mind wishes will be the day-to-day direction of my investments, not only don't I have any control over this aspect of my commitment to investing, but that any progress that I make is likely to be excruciatingly slow.

While I may become highly frustrated that this is the case, in most instances, it will later be proven wrong to have given up on the quest merely because of these at times slow, and highly unpredictable, short-term results. The exception, of course, is particular fund choices which were not good investments to begin with. While there may be times, such as back in the late s when nearly every stock fund investment seemed to support one's sense of perpetual winningness, 's market is much more typical.

The market might give you a little only to take it away in short order. But while success as an investor may mostly seem like a near impossible task for those who expect to see measurable results within a year, two, or even more, there is little doubt that there will nearly always be some winning categories of investments regardless of the broader investment environment.

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